Bitcoin price can fluctuate widely towards the end of the month when it comes to two factors, such as The BTC options market is about to expire $ 750 million, and the open interest rate of the CME futures market has soared. When the option is about to expire, the option holder must adjust their contract either before or immediately after expiration. Usually, that can cause volatility in Bitcoin price.
Upcoming expiration of $750 million BTC options coincides with other important dates, how’s about Bitcoin price?
Option to open interest. Source: Skew
The monthly close, option expiration, and CME expiration all coincide at the same time
It is difficult to gauge the volatility coming from Bitcoin options until a day or two before real expiration. However, the expiration date is coming, which will happen on the last Friday of the month, coinciding with other important dates.
According to the CME Bitcoin futures calendar, October futures will expire on October 30. All CME monthly Bitcoin futures contracts will expire on the last Friday of each month. Observing the upcoming expiration timeframes of CME Bitcoin futures contracts is especially important because of its high open interest.
Last week, CME became the second-largest Bitcoin futures market by open interest, overtaking Binance Futures, and other major exchanges.
Since CME is suitable for recognized institutional investors and investors, the CME Bitcoin futures market surpasses major cryptocurrency exchanges in many different meanings. Most notably, it turns out that the demand for BTC from institutions has never been so high before. The term open interest refers to the total number of long and short contracts opened in the market. Hence, if the high open interest rate is about to expire, it could cause large volatility.
Topping the highly anticipated futures options and terms, Bitcoin will also look ahead at the crucial monthly close.
On October 26, at the close of the weekly candle, Bitcoin officially marked the first completed weekly candle above $ 13,000 since January 2018. If BTC sustains above $ 13,000 in November, it will First be confirmed monthly candle closed above $ 13,000 in nearly three years.
Weekly Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView
The nature of the ongoing Bitcoin rally could increase the chances of a sustained uptrend, researchers from Skew said. Accordingly, Bitcoin options are pricing in a 7% chance of BTC hitting the $ 20,000 mark over the next two months.
Can BTC maintain its momentum?
Whether an increase in volatility is expected to support BTC or drive a strong rejection depends on BTC’s momentum. If Bitcoin’s price can sustain above $ 13,000 until the monthly close, that increases your chances of continuing to rise compared to a pullback.
Technical analysts, including Bitcoin trader Jack, claim that the current technical structure of Bitcoin is bullish.
“BTC 200-day average (green) trending above all-time average (orange) around the time of halving has never failed to induce a supply void driven rally. This is fundamentally programmed into Bitcoin and as long as demand is present, won’t break Last I checked, demand is present.”
Despite the on-chain data hinting at a sell-off of miners, the continued rise in Bitcoin’s price also suggests new demand is pouring into the market. Selling pressure from existing players, miners, and investors are being offset by new capital entering the cryptocurrency market.
After the last options expired on September 25, the Bitcoin price increased from $ 10,686 to $ 11,720 over the next 16 days. At the time, quite a few reports suggested the volatility could be due to the expiration of September options.
You can see the Bitcoin price here.
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Bitcoin price can fluctuate widely towards the end of the month when it comes to two factors, such as The BTC options market is about to expire $ 750 million, and the open interest rate of the CME futures market has soared. When the option is about to expire, the option holder must adjust their
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